Our outlook for Oman's property market in 2027 is continued but slower growth. Prices rose 15.9% year on year in Q1 2026 and 22.7% in Q2, according to the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). The forces behind that surge, residency reforms, Gulf capital and limited freehold supply, are still in place. But growth at that pace rarely lasts, and new supply, affordability and a thin resale market will start to push back.
Below are the drivers, the risks, three scenarios for 2027, and what each means if you are buying, selling or holding.
+22.7%
NCSI price index, Q2 2026
Year on year
+15.9%
NCSI price index, Q1 2026
Year on year
4.2-6.5%
Gross yields, foreign-buyer areas
Tracked, Muscat and Salalah
2028
Personal income tax starts
5% above OMR 42,000 a year
Where the market stands in late 2026#
The official index has accelerated through 2026. Our breakdowns of the Q1 release and the Q2 release show the detail. In our own tracked dataset, the main foreign-buyer communities price at:
| Community | Price per sq ft | Gross yield |
|---|---|---|
| Al Mouj | OMR 107 / sqft | 5.5% |
| Muscat Hills | OMR 74.1 / sqft | 6.0% |
| Muscat Bay | OMR 92.9 / sqft | 4.2% |
| Hawana Salalah | OMR 144 / sqft | 6.5% |
Full city data is in property prices in Muscat 2026 and the market report.
What should keep supporting prices#
1. Residency tied to ownership. The sponsor-free Owner residence permit (June 2026) and the investor residency programme turn property into a route to living in Oman. That widens the buyer pool well beyond traditional investors. See our residence visa guide.
2. Gulf capital. Buyers from the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been active, drawn by lower prices than Dubai and a stable currency. See where GCC capital is flowing into Oman.
3. Limited freehold supply. Foreigners can only buy in designated zones (full map here). Concentrated demand in a small number of communities supports prices there.
4. Vision 2040 and new cities. Infrastructure spending and projects such as Sultan Haitham City support long-run confidence. See Oman Vision 2040 for property investors.
5. The dollar peg. The rial's peg to the US dollar removes currency risk for dollar-based investors. See our peg explainer.
What could slow the market#
1. New supply. A wave of off-plan launches in 2025-2026, including large master plans like AIDA, will complete over 2027-2029. When many units hand over at once, resale prices and rents in those locations can soften.
2. Affordability. After two years of fast growth, prices are rising faster than incomes and rents. That limits how long double-digit growth can continue.
3. Interest rates. Because of the peg, Omani mortgage rates follow US rates. If US rates stay high, financed demand stays constrained. See our expat mortgage guide.
4. Oil prices. Government revenue still depends heavily on hydrocarbons. A sustained oil price fall would weigh on spending and sentiment.
5. Thin resale. Oman's secondary market is small. Prices can stall quickly when buyers step back, because there are few transactions to support values.
Three scenarios for 2027#
| Scenario | Price growth | What would cause it | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong | Double digits continue | Residency demand keeps building; GCC inflows accelerate | Lower |
| Base case | Mid-to-high single digits | Demand stays firm but cools as prices stretch affordability | Most likely |
| Soft | Flat to low single digits | Supply wave, oil weakness or higher rates | Possible |
This is our analysis of the drivers above, not a statistical forecast. Nobody can predict a small market's prices precisely, and the NCSI index covers the whole country, so individual communities will diverge.
What it means for you#
Buying to live in. If you plan to stay five years or more, the residency benefit and the cost of renting matter more than short-term price moves. Run rent or buy in Muscat.
Buying to invest. Favour completed units with proven rental demand in established communities over speculative off-plan, and focus on net yield. See is Oman real estate a good investment and best areas to invest in Oman.
Selling. A strong 2026 is a good backdrop for sellers, but buyer numbers are small. Price realistically. See how to sell property in Oman.
Buying off-plan. Check delivery records and escrow, and assume handover may slip. See our off-plan guide.
We will update this outlook as NCSI releases its Q3 and Q4 2026 data. Track live figures in the market report.
Sources: NCSI residential real estate price index, Q1 and Q2 2026; tracked prices and yields from the Oman Property Index dataset per our methodology; Royal Oman Police Decision 87/2026; Personal Income Tax law effective 1 January 2028. The scenarios are our own analysis and opinion, not financial advice.